The survey conducted in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi (Mizoram, which also goes to vote, has not been covered in this survey) shows that the BJP is reaping the dividends of better investment in leadership. (Article continues below)
(L) Chhattisgarh's Raman Singh, Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje, Madhya Pradesh's Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Delhi's Dr Harsh Vardhan
The last few years have been hard for India with the growth rate slipping along with the currency looking to be in freefall and inflation climbing through the roof. A series of scams involving vulgar amounts of money left us stunned. The taint went deeper than imagined. It hit at the very confidence which added steel to the frame of bureaucracy, forcing India into a shell of policy paralysis.
No wonder that people have, as the survey findings show, voted for governance instead of a change of guard. Riding on a strong Modi wave, saffron seems to be the colour of change.
In Madhya Pradesh, for example, nearly 60 per cent want the re-election of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has been at the helm since 2005 when he took over reins from Babulal Gaur. The survey projects the BJP will win a whopping 140 seats in the 240-member State Assembly while the Congress will have to make do with just 78 seats. More than 60 per cent voters aged between 18 and 40 want Chouhan to continue, and he is the choice of 65 per cent of the college-educated.
In Chhattisgarh, 56 per cent want to give Chief Minister Raman Singh a third stint despite conceding that insurgency continues to haunt the state. Perhaps, Singh's governance is more reflected in popular schemes, like the one-rupee rice scheme-the precursor of the food security bill. In a 90-member Assembly, the BJP is projected to win 46 while the Congress could bag 42.
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BJP wave to continue in Madhya Pradesh: India Today Group-ORG Poll
Shivraj Singh Chouhan
It seems Madhya Pradesh now firmly belongs to the BJP - 143 seats in the 2008 elections and a projection of 143 seats in the elections scheduled this month.
The Congress too will gain, but only seven seats, to reach a tally of 78 from 71. The loss will be of other parties - down from 16 seats to nine.
India Today Group-ORG poll: Saffron storm awaits Congress in four states
The India Today Group-ORG poll also predicts the return of Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the chief minister for the third term.
The poll was conducted between October 16 and October 26 in randomly selected constituencies and 3,000 voters were sampled from urban and rural areas.
The India Today Group-ORG poll also predicts the return of Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the chief minister for the third term.
The poll was conducted between October 16 and October 26 in randomly selected constituencies and 3,000 voters were sampled from urban and rural areas.
Asked 'who will make the best CM', 60 per cent wanted Chouhan and 32 per cent named Congress' Jyotiraditya Scindia. Two per cent said Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath each.
Both BJP and the Congress will gain vote share of five and four per cent. BJP's will be 43 per cent and Congress' 36 per cent.
Both BJP and the Congress will gain vote share of five and four per cent. BJP's will be 43 per cent and Congress' 36 per cent.
So according to the poll, the final composition of the 230-member assembly will be: BJP- 143, Congress-78 and Others-9.
Madhya Pradesh goes to the polls on November 25 and the results will be declared on December 8.
Madhya Pradesh goes to the polls on November 25 and the results will be declared on December 8.
Three-time Gujarat CM and BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi
In Rajasthan, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's last-minute efforts to replicate the UPA's popular Central scheme in his own state seems to have changed little. Fifty-one per cent people want a change of guard here. Riding on a strong anti-incumbency wave against Gehlot, former CM Vasundhara Raje is set to make a fierce comeback with 120 seats in an Assembly of 200. The Congress here gets just 76.
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BJP will be back in Chhattisgarh but narrowly
Chhatisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh.
India Today-ORG opinion polls predict another victory for the BJP in Chhattisgarh but the margin will be thin, because the ruling party could lose four seats to the Congress. So, the composition of the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly will be: BJP 46, Congress 42 and Others 2.
The outcome of the survey is that nothing much seems to have changed in the poll equation in the state compared to the last Assembly polls in 2008. No change in vote share for the BJP and a mere 1 per cent gain for the Congress. No wave, no anti-incumbency.
The share of other parties and independents will fall from 22 to 21 per cent but the number of seats will stay at two, says the poll.
Chhattisgarh goes to the polls in two phases-- November 11 and 19-- and the results will be declared on December 8.
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In Delhi, the survey denies Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit a fourth term though she continues to be the most popular choice for CM. The careful selection of Dr Harsh Vardhan as the BJP's CM candidate seems to have given the party an edge over all others. The poll gives BJP 36 seats, Congress 22 and Aam Aadmi Party 8.
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Vasundhara Raje set to net Rajasthan with clear mandate
Vasundhara Raje
In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje, the erstwhile maharani of Dholpur, is riding a strong anti-incumbency wave against Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and is set to make a fierce comeback with the India Today Group-ORG opinion poll predicting the BJP winning 105 seats and the Congress bagging 76 seats.
India Today Group-ORG poll: Saffron storm awaits Congress in four states
India Today Group-ORG poll: Saffron storm awaits Congress in four states
India Today Group-ORG Poll: In Delhi, Dr Harsh Vardhan scripts BJP win
BJP is doing better because Raje has picked up the right issues to attack Gehlot. In her speeches, she repeatedly highlights atrocities on women in the state, including frequent incidents of chain-snatching. Gujarat CM and BJP PM nominee Narendra Modi also made a mention of poor law and order situation in Rajasthan at his Udaipur rally on October 25.
Gehlot spent most of his five-year tenure targeting his predecessor. The first two years were devoted to dismantling projects Raje had initiated, including a mass rapid transport system for Jaipur and India's first direct cash transfer scheme for women. He then launched projects of his own, such as the Jaipur Metro, intending to finish them before the polls. All he managed till September was to get the Centre's nod for a state-funded refinery in Barmer.
In a state where caste plays a decisive role, former BJP leader and now Independent MLA Kirori Lal Meena can play spoiler. Having joined hands with PA Sangma's National People's Party, the Scheduled Tribes leader has got 17 per cent votes in the opinion poll, a mark-up on the 13.5 per cent ST votes in the state. Managing rebels ahead of November 16, the last date of withdrawal of nominations, will thus be key to the fortunes of both the incumbent and the challenger.
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The Assembly elections in the five states are being seen as the semi-final to the 2014 General Elections. No wonder that the Congress is wary of opinion polls which have predicted a strong public desire for change.
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Kejriwal makes a dent in Delhi but Dr Harsh Vardhan scripts BJP win: India Today Group-ORG poll
Eyes on the road ahead: BJP's Delhi CM candidate Dr Harsh Vardhan. Photo by Sandeep Unnithan
In Delhi, the BJP's choice of Dr Harsh Vardhan as the paty's chief ministerial nominee over Vijay Goel seems a masterstroke in retrospect, which has given the party an edge over all others. The India Today Group-ORG opinion poll shows BJP is poised to win the elections with 36 of the 70 seats.
Equally surprising is the other finding: The projected 23 per cent vote for Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), impressive for a party that did not exist until a year ago, nets it only eight seats. The Congress, with a 30 per cent vote share-slightly behind BJP's 33 per cent-gets 26 seats. The contest is likely to be severe and unpredictable in at least 20 Assembly constituencies in Delhi where victory margins were as narrow as 200 votes in the 2008 elections.
India Today Group-ORG Poll: BJP wave to continue in Madhya Pradesh
The opinion poll ranks Dr Harsh Vardhan third (19 per cent) in the ratings for chief minister, behind three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit's still lofty 28 per cent and Arvind Kejriwal's 22 per cent.
The opinion poll ranks Dr Harsh Vardhan third (19 per cent) in the ratings for chief minister, behind three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit's still lofty 28 per cent and Arvind Kejriwal's 22 per cent.
It was during his stint as state health minister between 1993 and 1998 that Dr Harsh Vardhan initiated the National Polio Surveillance Project in Delhi, which, drop by drop, became a national polio eradication campaign. In February 2014, India will celebrate three polio-free years.
India Today Group-ORG Poll: Vasundhara Raje set to net Rajasthan with clear mandate
Transparency, the cornerstone of the doctor's blueprint to rebuild Delhi, seems to have hit the right note with the Delhi population. All government decisions will be put up online, he promises. "It will immediately reduce corruption," he says. He promises freedom for bureaucrats, a thrust on renewable energy and medical insurance for all. The thrust, however, comes from his approachable, down-to-earth style.
Transparency, the cornerstone of the doctor's blueprint to rebuild Delhi, seems to have hit the right note with the Delhi population. All government decisions will be put up online, he promises. "It will immediately reduce corruption," he says. He promises freedom for bureaucrats, a thrust on renewable energy and medical insurance for all. The thrust, however, comes from his approachable, down-to-earth style.
'Shasak nahin sevak (Worker, not ruler),' said BJP posters of Dr Harsh Vardhan that appeared across Delhi days after he came in from the cold. The BJP gamble, albeit a delayed one, of presenting a clean, non-controversial face, may already be paying off.
source:IndiaToday
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